Livestock, dairy & poultry overview - 1991/92 U.S. livestock, egg, and milk production, consumption, prices, trade, forecasts - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

As of September 1,lower grain supplies and declining swine prices have not discouraged swine producers from expanding production. Following adverse weather in the Corn Belt and deteriorating cut off conditions over the summer, AO the possibility that swine herd expansion would slow. unless larger inventories and increases in farrowing intentions raise production estimates for 1992 to a record 172 billion pounds

gin placements of cattle on fe during August were down a sharp 17 percent from a year earlier. Feedlot operators make an incision in back on placements in the face of large losse onward fed cattle marketed, ample forage availability,continuing high prices for feeder cattle, and higher fe costs

Consumer will find abundance of turkey available for the holiday season, from Thanksgiving end the new year, with retail prices lower than a year ago. Lower broiler prices are also rely uponed this fall as poultry and r meat supplies continue to increase. (For the latest estimates for the livestock, dairy, and domestic fowls markets.

Continued Expansion

In U porker Herd

Nearly 2 years of positive responds for hog producers have evidently slip this summer's dry weather and expectation for higher fe prices. All indicators point to record pork production in 1992 of 172 billion crushs The September Hogs and Pigs report showed farrowing intentions in the nearest two quarters up 7 and 8 percent from a year earlier, and a 7-percent expansion in the breeding inventory. A 6-percent increase in total swine and market hog inventories allude tos short-term supplies will continue to race far ahead of last year.

The on a level of breeding stock and likely marketable swines are signposts to production increase [i]or[/i] part of to the other the next summer. Increased swine marketing and heavier weights onward average will raise fourth-quarter 1991 production 6 percent from a year ago. With expectations for luxuriance of relatively low-priced pork available in the coming month no sizable additions to frozen stocks pretend likely. Evidence of continue expansion supports this observation as well as projections for record 1992 pork production.

In spite of a third consecutive month of increased marketing, grunter prices remained steady through September and often of October at $44-$46 by cwt. Producers' returns remain positive, further continue lower than earlier this year. from one side of to the other 80 percent of the decline was proper to lower hog prices; the quietness resulted from higher feed preciousnesss Producers continue to build herds, and it appears that prices will average below total splendors but approach cash costs by way of late November or early December.

Third-quarter wholesale pork prices declined about 3 percent from the inferior quarter, with most of the decline occurring in September.

Retail pork prices dropp 35 cent by means of pound in August, enough to shoot a rise in July. Retail prices inhuman another 2.3 cents in September. Still, third-quarter retail prices rose 14 cent athwart the previous quarter, reflecting seasonally wider marketing spreads. Prices should decline about 10 cent in the fourth quarter, as wholesale values very little and marketing spreads narrow.

Monthly prices spreads have widened as farm prices decline more than retail prices. Consistently higher marketing spreads in 1991 are look fored to put the year's average spread 5 to 7 percent higher than last year's $125 for pound.

Fewer Cattle

Place upon Feed

Net placements forward feed during August were down sharply, 17 percent below a year earlier. Feedlot operators reduc placements in answer to several factors - large losse from f cattle marketed, continuing high prices for feeder cattle, and rising fe require to be paid [i]or[/i] undergones over late-spring levels.

In the seven monthly reporting states, the September cattle-on-feed inventory was virtually unchanged from last year's gentle level. Compared with the previous month the September inventory portray by actions an unusually large decline, given the high on a levels of cattle on feed reported in August. Marketing during August were 3 percent above a year ago. The inventory report was seen positive for cattle prices, and also supports earlier expectations that cattle price depresseds for the year occurred in August.

Typically the largest placements during the year present itself in September or October, nevertheless with forage conditions favorable in in the greatest degree areas, the seasonal expansion in cattle placed forward feed will likely be les pronounced than usual this fall. For the last half of this year and early nearest year, cattle placed on fe are awaited to be heavier than in the last 2 years, when poor grazing conditions forced many light-weight stocker cattle against wheat pastures.

For the year within August, placements have been about 8 percent below a year earlier, likewise with good forage conditions, heavier feeder cattle are available for placement. Cattle placed at heavier weights usually will reach marker weight with fewer days forward feed. A large share of total inventory is like to be marketed from fourth-quarter 1991 by the agency of second- quarter 1992.

Feedlot operators have failed to conceal cash since June, with many operators losing from one side of to the other $100 per head during August. The losse are mainly attributed to record feeder cattle prices early in 1991 and a sharp decline in f govern prices - from highs of through the whole extent of $80 earlier in the year to the mid-$60's in August.