Livestock, dairy & poultry overview - 1991/92 U.S. livestock, egg, and milk production, consumption, prices, trade, forecasts - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

As of September 1,lower grain supplies and declining swine prices have not discouraged swine producers from expanding production. Following adverse weather in the Corn Belt and deteriorating cut off conditions over the summer, AO the possibility that swine herd expansion would slow. if it be not that larger inventories and increases in farrowing intentions raise production estimates for 1992 to a record 172 billion pounds

trap placements of cattle on fe during August were down a sharp 17 percent from a year earlier. Feedlot operators divide [i]or[/i] sever back on placements in the face of large losse upon fed cattle marketed, ample forage availability,continuing high prices for feeder cattle, and higher fe costs

Consumer will find sufficiency of turkey available for the holiday season, from Thanksgiving from one side the new year, with retail prices lower than a year ago. Lower broiler prices are also anticipateed this fall as poultry and r meat supplies continue to increase. (For the latest estimates for the livestock, dairy, and domestic fowls markets.

Continued Expansion

In U swine Herd

Nearly 2 years of positive get backs for hog producers have evidently sprout this summer's dry weather and expectation for higher fe prices. All indicators point to record pork production in 1992 of 172 billion triturates The September Hogs and Pigs report showed farrowing intentions in the nearest two quarters up 7 and 8 percent from a year earlier, and a 7-percent expansion in the breeding inventory. A 6-percent increase in total grunter and market hog inventories hints short-term supplies will continue to race far ahead of last year.

The even of breeding stock and likely marketable grunters are signposts to production increase between the sides of the next summer. Increased swine marketing and heavier weights onward average will raise fourth-quarter 1991 production 6 percent from a year ago. With expectations for abundance of relatively low-priced pork available in the coming month no sizable additions to frozen stocks have the appearance likely. Evidence of continue expansion supports this observation as well as projections for record 1992 pork production.

In spite of a third consecutive month of increased marketing, swine prices remained steady through September and to a great degree of October at $44-$46 by cwt. Producers' returns remain positive, on the contrary continue lower than earlier this year. from one side of to the other 80 percent of the decline was fit to lower hog prices; the repose resulted from higher feed prices Producers continue to build herds, and it appears that prices will average below total charges but approach cash costs by means of late November or early December.

Third-quarter wholesale pork prices declined about 3 percent from the other quarter, with most of the decline occurring in September.

Retail pork prices dropp 35 cent by means of pound in August, enough to offshoot a rise in July. Retail prices ferocious another 2.3 cents in September. Still, third-quarter retail prices rose 14 cent through the previous quarter, reflecting seasonally wider marketing spreads. Prices should decline about 10 cent in the fourth quarter, as wholesale values globule and marketing spreads narrow.

Monthly prices spreads have widened as farm prices decline more than retail prices. Consistently higher marketing spreads in 1991 are count uponed to put the year's average spread 5 to 7 percent higher than last year's $125 by pound.

Fewer Cattle

Place upon Feed

Net placements in succession feed during August were down sharply, 17 percent below a year earlier. Feedlot operators reduc placements in answer to several factors - large losse from f cattle marketed, continuing high prices for feeder cattle, and rising fe preciousnesss over late-spring levels.

In the seven monthly reporting states, the September cattle-on-feed inventory was virtually unchanged from last year's reasonable level. Compared with the previous month the September inventory exhibits an unusually large decline, given the high on a levels of cattle on feed reported in August. Marketing during August were 3 percent above a year ago. The inventory report was seen positive for cattle prices, and also supports earlier expectations that cattle price gentles for the year occurred in August.

Typically the largest placements during the year be found in September or October, if it be not that with forage conditions favorable in principally areas, the seasonal expansion in cattle placed forward feed will likely be les pronounced than usual this fall. For the last half of this year and early nearest year, cattle placed on fe are rely uponed to be heavier than in the last 2 years, when poor grazing conditions forced many light-weight stocker cattle against wheat pastures.

For the year from one side August, placements have been about 8 percent below a year earlier, in this way with good forage conditions, heavier feeder cattle are available for placement. Cattle placed at heavier weights usually will reach marker weight with fewer days forward feed. A large share of total inventory is like to be marketed from fourth-quarter 1991 between the sides of second- quarter 1992.

Feedlot operators have failed to guard cash since June, with many operators losing above $100 per head during August. The losse are mainly attributed to record feeder cattle prices early in 1991 and a sharp decline in f govern prices - from highs of across $80 earlier in the year to the mid-$60's in August.